tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Oakland → Las Vegas via Phoenix: arrives on time 18%

  1. 19:50 OAK → 21:50 PHX
    WN 3070 · Southwest · 2h 00m · 40% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 55m layover in Phoenix (PHX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:45 PHX → 23:52 LAS
    WN 1351 · Southwest · 1h 08m · 52% on time, 3.8% cancelled

Total trip 4h 03m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 24 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection35%The first flight arrived more than 10 minutes late on 65% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 55m layover.
Arrives on time18%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (35%) × second flight not cancelled (3.8% are) and within 15 minutes (52%).
Total trip4h 03mOAK 19:50 to LAS 23:52, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.