tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Oakland → Orlando via Phoenix: arrives on time 50%

  1. 19:50 OAK → 21:50 PHX
    WN 3070 · Southwest · 2h 00m · 40% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 15m layover in Phoenix (PHX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 23:05 PHX → 06:20 MCO +1 day
    WN 4508 · Southwest · 4h 15m · 81% on time, 1.7% cancelled

Total trip 7h 30m, scheduled departure to arrival (Orlando is 3 h ahead of Oakland). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection63%The first flight arrived more than 30 minutes late on 37% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 15m layover.
Arrives on time50%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (63%) × second flight not cancelled (1.7% are) and within 15 minutes (81%).
Total trip7h 30mOAK 19:50 to MCO 06:20, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.