tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Seattle → Baltimore via Chicago: arrives on time 35%

  1. 11:45 SEA → 18:00 MDW
    WN 3081 · Southwest · 4h 15m · 57% on time, 2.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 00m layover in Chicago (MDW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:00 MDW → 21:55 BWI
    WN 2745 · Southwest · 1h 55m · 66% on time, 4.8% cancelled

Total trip 7h 10m, scheduled departure to arrival (Baltimore is 3 h ahead of Seattle). Times are local. Both flew on 40 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection57%The first flight arrived more than 15 minutes late on 43% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 00m layover.
Arrives on time35%First flight not cancelled (2.0% are) × connection made (57%) × second flight not cancelled (4.8% are) and within 15 minutes (66%).
Total trip7h 10mSEA 11:45 to BWI 21:55, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.