tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Seattle → San Francisco via Chicago: arrives on time 48%

  1. 11:45 SEA → 18:00 MDW
    WN 3081 · Southwest · 4h 15m · 57% on time, 2.0% cancelled
  2. 3h 30m layover in Chicago (MDW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:30 MDW → 00:12 SFO +1 day
    WN 2893 · Southwest · 4h 42m · 51% on time, 2.0% cancelled

Total trip 12h 27m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 40 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection98%The first flight arrived more than 165 minutes late on 2% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 3h 30m layover.
Arrives on time48%First flight not cancelled (2.0% are) × connection made (98%) × second flight not cancelled (2.0% are) and within 15 minutes (51%).
Total trip12h 27mSEA 11:45 to SFO 00:12, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.