tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Seattle → Philadelphia via Chicago: arrives on time 23%

  1. 11:45 SEA → 18:00 MDW
    WN 3081 · Southwest · 4h 15m · 57% on time, 2.0% cancelled
  2. 55m layover in Chicago (MDW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:55 MDW → 21:50 PHL
    WN 4263 · Southwest · 2h 00m · 51% on time, 4.9% cancelled

Total trip 7h 10m, scheduled departure to arrival (Philadelphia is 3 h ahead of Seattle). Times are local. Both flew on 31 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection49%The first flight arrived more than 10 minutes late on 51% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 55m layover.
Arrives on time23%First flight not cancelled (2.0% are) × connection made (49%) × second flight not cancelled (4.9% are) and within 15 minutes (51%).
Total trip7h 10mSEA 11:45 to PHL 21:50, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.