tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Kahului → Phoenix via Sacramento: arrives on time 54%

  1. 10:50 OGG → 18:50 SMF
    WN 3105 · Southwest · 5h 00m · 95% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 00m layover in Sacramento (SMF) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:50 SMF → 21:45 PHX
    WN 4285 · Southwest · 1h 55m · 57% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 7h 55m, scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 3 h ahead of Kahului). Times are local. Both flew on 47 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection95%The first flight arrived more than 15 minutes late on 5% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 00m layover.
Arrives on time54%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (95%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (57%).
Total trip7h 55mOGG 10:50 to PHX 21:45, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.