tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Oklahoma City → Phoenix via Chicago: arrives on time 21%

  1. 15:48 OKC → 17:38 MDW
    WN 3123 · Southwest · 1h 50m · 54% on time, 4.0% cancelled
  2. 57m layover in Chicago (MDW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:35 MDW → 20:15 PHX
    WN 2862 · Southwest · 3h 40m · 43% on time, 6.0% cancelled

Total trip 6h 27m, scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 2 h behind Oklahoma City). Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection54%The first flight arrived more than 12 minutes late on 46% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 57m layover.
Arrives on time21%First flight not cancelled (4.0% are) × connection made (54%) × second flight not cancelled (6.0% are) and within 15 minutes (43%).
Total trip6h 27mOKC 15:48 to PHX 20:15, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.