tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Ontario → San Francisco via Phoenix: arrives on time 21%

  1. 20:42 ONT → 21:58 PHX
    WN 3160 · Southwest · 1h 15m · 48% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 52m layover in Phoenix (PHX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:50 PHX → 00:55 SFO +1 day
    WN 1098 · Southwest · 2h 05m · 58% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 4h 13m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 23 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection36%The first flight arrived more than 7 minutes late on 64% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 52m layover.
Arrives on time21%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (36%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (58%).
Total trip4h 13mONT 20:42 to SFO 00:55, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.