tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Ontario → Las Vegas via Phoenix: arrives on time 15%

  1. 20:42 ONT → 21:58 PHX
    WN 3160 · Southwest · 1h 15m · 48% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 47m layover in Phoenix (PHX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:45 PHX → 23:52 LAS
    WN 1351 · Southwest · 1h 08m · 52% on time, 3.8% cancelled

Total trip 3h 11m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 24 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection30%The first flight arrived more than 2 minutes late on 70% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 47m layover.
Arrives on time15%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (30%) × second flight not cancelled (3.8% are) and within 15 minutes (52%).
Total trip3h 11mONT 20:42 to LAS 23:52, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.