tailodds FORECAST
Connection · two tickets · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Ontario → Chicago via Sacramento: arrives on time 86%

  1. 18:30 ONT → 19:55 SMF
    WN 3170 · Southwest · 1h 25m · 74% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 3h 15m layover in Sacramento (SMF) · 90 min minimum on separate tickets
  3. 23:10 SMF → 05:36 ORD +1 day
    AA 3060 · American · 4h 23m · 94% on time, 1.9% cancelled

Total trip 9h 03m, scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 2 h ahead of Ontario). Times are local. Both flew on 39 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection93%The first flight arrived more than 105 minutes late on 7% of the days it flew: too late for the 90-minute minimum connection on a 3h 15m layover.
Arrives on time86%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (93%) × second flight not cancelled (1.9% are) and within 15 minutes (94%).
Total trip9h 03mONT 18:30 to ORD 05:36, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.