tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Ontario → Las Vegas via Sacramento: arrives on time 43%

  1. 18:30 ONT → 19:55 SMF
    WN 3170 · Southwest · 1h 25m · 74% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Sacramento (SMF) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:45 SMF → 22:15 LAS
    WN 3788 · Southwest · 1h 30m · 65% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 3h 45m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection67%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 33% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time43%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (67%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (65%).
Total trip3h 45mONT 18:30 to LAS 22:15, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.