tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Ontario → Chicago via Sacramento: arrives on time 90%

  1. 18:30 ONT → 19:55 SMF
    WN 3170 · Southwest · 1h 25m · 74% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 3h 55m layover in Sacramento (SMF) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 23:50 SMF → 05:45 MDW +1 day
    WN 3802 · Southwest · 3h 55m · 91% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 9h 15m, scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 2 h ahead of Ontario). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection98%The first flight arrived more than 190 minutes late on 2% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 3h 55m layover.
Arrives on time90%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (98%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (91%).
Total trip9h 15mONT 18:30 to MDW 05:45, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.