tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → San Jose via Austin: arrives on time 23%

  1. 18:20 MDW → 20:55 AUS
    WN 3171 · Southwest · 2h 35m · 53% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 00m layover in Austin (AUS) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:55 AUS → 23:25 SJC
    WN 400 · Southwest · 3h 30m · 45% on time, 2.9% cancelled

Total trip 7h 05m, scheduled departure to arrival (San Jose is 2 h behind Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 32 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection53%The first flight arrived more than 15 minutes late on 47% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 00m layover.
Arrives on time23%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (53%) × second flight not cancelled (2.9% are) and within 15 minutes (45%).
Total trip7h 05mMDW 18:20 to SJC 23:25, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.