tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Providence → Orlando via Baltimore: arrives on time 27%

  1. 17:20 PVD → 18:50 BWI
    WN 3196 · Southwest · 1h 30m · 62% on time, 8.8% cancelled
  2. 55m layover in Baltimore (BWI) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:45 BWI → 22:15 MCO
    WN 3416 · Southwest · 2h 30m · 66% on time, 15.8% cancelled

Total trip 4h 55m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 36 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection54%The first flight arrived more than 10 minutes late on 46% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 55m layover.
Arrives on time27%First flight not cancelled (8.8% are) × connection made (54%) × second flight not cancelled (15.8% are) and within 15 minutes (66%).
Total trip4h 55mPVD 17:20 to MCO 22:15, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.