tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Philadelphia → Seattle via Nashville: arrives on time 14%

  1. 13:55 PHL → 15:02 BNA
    WN 3216 · Southwest · 2h 08m · 65% on time, 4.0% cancelled
  2. 53m layover in Nashville (BNA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 15:55 BNA → 18:50 SEA
    WN 4784 · Southwest · 4h 55m · 29% on time, 2.0% cancelled

Total trip 7h 55m, scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 3 h behind Philadelphia). Times are local. Both flew on 40 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection52%The first flight arrived more than 8 minutes late on 48% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 53m layover.
Arrives on time14%First flight not cancelled (4.0% are) × connection made (52%) × second flight not cancelled (2.0% are) and within 15 minutes (29%).
Total trip7h 55mPHL 13:55 to SEA 18:50, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.