tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Philadelphia → New Orleans via Dallas: arrives on time 18%

  1. 18:30 PHL → 21:00 DAL
    WN 3218 · Southwest · 3h 30m · 32% on time, 1.8% cancelled
  2. 1h 00m layover in Dallas (DAL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:00 DAL → 23:28 MSY
    WN 1370 · Southwest · 1h 28m · 58% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 5h 58m, scheduled departure to arrival (New Orleans is 1 h behind Philadelphia). Times are local. Both flew on 24 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection32%The first flight arrived more than 15 minutes late on 68% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 00m layover.
Arrives on time18%First flight not cancelled (1.8% are) × connection made (32%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (58%).
Total trip5h 58mPHL 18:30 to MSY 23:28, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.