tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Philadelphia → Orlando via Denver: arrives on time 10%

  1. 16:50 PHL → 18:55 DEN
    WN 3221 · Southwest · 4h 05m · 33% on time, 3.5% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Denver (DEN) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:45 DEN → 01:38 MCO +1 day
    WN 1596 · Southwest · 3h 52m · 46% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 8h 47m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 24 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection22%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 78% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time10%First flight not cancelled (3.5% are) × connection made (22%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (46%).
Total trip8h 47mPHL 16:50 to MCO 01:38, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.