tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Philadelphia → Phoenix via Denver: arrives on time 14%

  1. 16:50 PHL → 18:55 DEN
    WN 3221 · Southwest · 4h 05m · 33% on time, 3.5% cancelled
  2. 1h 10m layover in Denver (DEN) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:05 DEN → 21:00 PHX
    WN 4447 · Southwest · 1h 55m · 33% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 7h 10m, scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 3 h behind Philadelphia). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection44%The first flight arrived more than 25 minutes late on 56% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 10m layover.
Arrives on time14%First flight not cancelled (3.5% are) × connection made (44%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (33%).
Total trip7h 10mPHL 16:50 to PHX 21:00, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.