tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Philadelphia → Rochester via Chicago: arrives on time 40%

  1. 11:22 PHL → 12:32 MDW
    WN 3224 · Southwest · 2h 10m · 88% on time, 2.0% cancelled
  2. 48m layover in Chicago (MDW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 13:20 MDW → 15:55 ROC
    WN 2877 · Southwest · 1h 35m · 59% on time, 1.8% cancelled

Total trip 4h 33m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection71%The first flight arrived more than 3 minutes late on 29% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 48m layover.
Arrives on time40%First flight not cancelled (2.0% are) × connection made (71%) × second flight not cancelled (1.8% are) and within 15 minutes (59%).
Total trip4h 33mPHL 11:22 to ROC 15:55, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.