tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Philadelphia → New Orleans via Chicago: arrives on time 40%

  1. 18:55 PHL → 20:20 MDW
    WN 3226 · Southwest · 2h 25m · 62% on time, 6.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 20m layover in Chicago (MDW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:40 MDW → 23:40 MSY
    WN 2836 · Southwest · 2h 15m · 66% on time, 6.0% cancelled

Total trip 6h 00m, scheduled departure to arrival (New Orleans is 1 h behind Philadelphia). Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection68%The first flight arrived more than 35 minutes late on 32% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 20m layover.
Arrives on time40%First flight not cancelled (6.0% are) × connection made (68%) × second flight not cancelled (6.0% are) and within 15 minutes (66%).
Total trip6h 00mPHL 18:55 to MSY 23:40, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.