tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Philadelphia → San Diego via Chicago: arrives on time 22%

  1. 18:55 PHL → 20:20 MDW
    WN 3226 · Southwest · 2h 25m · 62% on time, 6.0% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Chicago (MDW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:10 MDW → 23:25 SAN
    WN 2884 · Southwest · 4h 15m · 52% on time, 8.8% cancelled

Total trip 7h 30m, scheduled departure to arrival (San Diego is 3 h behind Philadelphia). Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection49%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 51% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time22%First flight not cancelled (6.0% are) × connection made (49%) × second flight not cancelled (8.8% are) and within 15 minutes (52%).
Total trip7h 30mPHL 18:55 to SAN 23:25, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.