tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Philadelphia → Memphis via Chicago: arrives on time 26%

  1. 18:55 PHL → 20:20 MDW
    WN 3226 · Southwest · 2h 25m · 62% on time, 6.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 05m layover in Chicago (MDW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:25 MDW → 23:10 MEM
    WN 4100 · Southwest · 1h 40m · 45% on time, 3.4% cancelled

Total trip 5h 10m, scheduled departure to arrival (Memphis is 1 h behind Philadelphia). Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection64%The first flight arrived more than 20 minutes late on 36% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 05m layover.
Arrives on time26%First flight not cancelled (6.0% are) × connection made (64%) × second flight not cancelled (3.4% are) and within 15 minutes (45%).
Total trip5h 10mPHL 18:55 to MEM 23:10, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.