tailodds FORECAST
Connection · two tickets · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Sacramento → New York via Phoenix: arrives on time 87%

  1. 16:40 SMF → 18:35 PHX
    WN 3231 · Southwest · 1h 55m · 44% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 4h 00m layover in Phoenix (PHX) · 90 min minimum on separate tickets
  3. 22:35 PHX → 06:27 JFK +1 day
    DL 548 · Delta · 4h 52m · 89% on time, 1.6% cancelled

Total trip 10h 47m, scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 3 h ahead of Sacramento). Times are local. Both flew on 32 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection100%The first flight arrived more than 150 minutes late on 0% of the days it flew: too late for the 90-minute minimum connection on a 4h 00m layover.
Arrives on time87%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (100%) × second flight not cancelled (1.6% are) and within 15 minutes (89%).
Total trip10h 47mSMF 16:40 to JFK 06:27, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.