tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Sacramento → Denver via Phoenix: arrives on time 18%

  1. 16:40 SMF → 18:35 PHX
    WN 3231 · Southwest · 1h 55m · 44% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 55m layover in Phoenix (PHX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:30 PHX → 22:20 DEN
    WN 3267 · Southwest · 1h 50m · 50% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 4h 40m, scheduled departure to arrival (Denver is 1 h ahead of Sacramento). Times are local. Both flew on 32 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection36%The first flight arrived more than 10 minutes late on 64% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 55m layover.
Arrives on time18%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (36%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (50%).
Total trip4h 40mSMF 16:40 to DEN 22:20, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.