tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → Washington via Nashville: arrives on time 17%

  1. 05:10 PHX → 10:25 BNA
    WN 3235 · Southwest · 3h 15m · 88% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Nashville (BNA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 11:15 BNA → 14:00 DCA
    WN 4562 · Southwest · 1h 45m · 39% on time, 2.0% cancelled

Total trip 5h 50m, scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 3 h ahead of Phoenix). Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection44%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 56% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time17%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (44%) × second flight not cancelled (2.0% are) and within 15 minutes (39%).
Total trip5h 50mPHX 05:10 to DCA 14:00, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.