tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → Jacksonville via Nashville: arrives on time 29%

  1. 12:45 PHX → 18:00 BNA
    WN 3237 · Southwest · 3h 15m · 64% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 00m layover in Nashville (BNA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:00 BNA → 21:35 JAX
    WN 4624 · Southwest · 1h 35m · 45% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 5h 50m, scheduled departure to arrival (Jacksonville is 3 h ahead of Phoenix). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection64%The first flight arrived more than 15 minutes late on 36% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 00m layover.
Arrives on time29%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (64%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (45%).
Total trip5h 50mPHX 12:45 to JAX 21:35, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.