tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → Dallas via Nashville: arrives on time 25%

  1. 12:45 PHX → 18:00 BNA
    WN 3237 · Southwest · 3h 15m · 64% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 58m layover in Nashville (BNA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:58 BNA → 20:52 DAL
    WN 490 · Southwest · 1h 55m · 42% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 6h 08m, scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas is 2 h ahead of Phoenix). Times are local. Both flew on 47 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection59%The first flight arrived more than 13 minutes late on 41% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 58m layover.
Arrives on time25%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (59%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (42%).
Total trip6h 08mPHX 12:45 to DAL 20:52, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.