tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → Houston via Nashville: arrives on time 16%

  1. 12:45 PHX → 18:00 BNA
    WN 3237 · Southwest · 3h 15m · 64% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 55m layover in Nashville (BNA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:55 BNA → 21:02 HOU
    WN 534 · Southwest · 2h 05m · 33% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 6h 15m, scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 2 h ahead of Phoenix). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection50%The first flight arrived more than 10 minutes late on 50% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 55m layover.
Arrives on time16%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (50%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (33%).
Total trip6h 15mPHX 12:45 to HOU 21:02, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.