tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Tampa → New Orleans via Washington: arrives on time 17%

  1. 15:55 TPA → 18:20 DCA
    WN 324 · Southwest · 2h 25m · 50% on time, 3.8% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Washington (DCA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:10 DCA → 20:50 MSY
    WN 1453 · Southwest · 2h 40m · 50% on time, 15.8% cancelled

Total trip 5h 55m, scheduled departure to arrival (New Orleans is 1 h behind Tampa). Times are local. Both flew on 24 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection41%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 59% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time17%First flight not cancelled (3.8% are) × connection made (41%) × second flight not cancelled (15.8% are) and within 15 minutes (50%).
Total trip5h 55mTPA 15:55 to MSY 20:50, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.