tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → Chicago via Denver: arrives on time 17%

  1. 13:45 PHX → 16:35 DEN
    WN 3264 · Southwest · 1h 50m · 61% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 00m layover in Denver (DEN) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:35 DEN → 21:00 MDW
    WN 1604 · Southwest · 2h 25m · 27% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 5h 15m, scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 2 h ahead of Phoenix). Times are local. Both flew on 40 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection61%The first flight arrived more than 15 minutes late on 39% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 00m layover.
Arrives on time17%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (61%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (27%).
Total trip5h 15mPHX 13:45 to MDW 21:00, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.