tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → Indianapolis via Denver: arrives on time 20%

  1. 15:25 PHX → 18:10 DEN
    WN 3265 · Southwest · 1h 45m · 35% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 20m layover in Denver (DEN) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:30 DEN → 12:32 IND +1 day
    WN 1211 · Southwest · 2h 32m · 37% on time, 2.0% cancelled

Total trip 5h 37m, scheduled departure to arrival (Indianapolis is 3 h ahead of Phoenix). Times are local. Both flew on 40 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection55%The first flight arrived more than 35 minutes late on 45% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 20m layover.
Arrives on time20%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (55%) × second flight not cancelled (2.0% are) and within 15 minutes (37%).
Total trip5h 37mPHX 15:25 to IND 12:32, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.