tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → Detroit via Denver: arrives on time 8%

  1. 15:25 PHX → 18:10 DEN
    WN 3265 · Southwest · 1h 45m · 35% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 55m layover in Denver (DEN) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:05 DEN → 23:55 DTW
    WN 2193 · Southwest · 2h 50m · 30% on time, 1.7% cancelled

Total trip 5h 30m, scheduled departure to arrival (Detroit is 3 h ahead of Phoenix). Times are local. Both flew on 47 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection27%The first flight arrived more than 10 minutes late on 73% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 55m layover.
Arrives on time8%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (27%) × second flight not cancelled (1.7% are) and within 15 minutes (30%).
Total trip5h 30mPHX 15:25 to DTW 23:55, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.