tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → Des Moines via Denver: arrives on time 6%

  1. 15:25 PHX → 18:10 DEN
    WN 3265 · Southwest · 1h 45m · 35% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 12m layover in Denver (DEN) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:22 DEN → 22:10 DSM
    WN 2940 · Southwest · 1h 45m · 12% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 4h 42m, scheduled departure to arrival (Des Moines is 2 h ahead of Phoenix). Times are local. Both flew on 47 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection47%The first flight arrived more than 27 minutes late on 53% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 12m layover.
Arrives on time6%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (47%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (12%).
Total trip4h 42mPHX 15:25 to DSM 22:10, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.