tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

San Jose → Nashville via Phoenix: arrives on time 10%

  1. 16:05 SJC → 18:00 PHX
    WN 3266 · Southwest · 1h 55m · 48% on time, 2.4% cancelled
  2. 55m layover in Phoenix (PHX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:55 PHX → 00:45 BNA +1 day
    WN 4507 · Southwest · 3h 15m · 29% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 6h 05m, scheduled departure to arrival (Nashville is 2 h ahead of San Jose). Times are local. Both flew on 27 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection35%The first flight arrived more than 10 minutes late on 65% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 55m layover.
Arrives on time10%First flight not cancelled (2.4% are) × connection made (35%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (29%).
Total trip6h 05mSJC 16:05 to BNA 00:45, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.