tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → San Diego via Las Vegas: arrives on time 4%

  1. 16:00 PHX → 17:10 LAS
    WN 3283 · Southwest · 1h 10m · 41% on time, 2.0% cancelled
  2. 55m layover in Las Vegas (LAS) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:05 LAS → 19:20 SAN
    WN 1288 · Southwest · 1h 15m · 10% on time, 2.4% cancelled

Total trip 3h 20m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 32 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection39%The first flight arrived more than 10 minutes late on 61% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 55m layover.
Arrives on time4%First flight not cancelled (2.0% are) × connection made (39%) × second flight not cancelled (2.4% are) and within 15 minutes (10%).
Total trip3h 20mPHX 16:00 to SAN 19:20, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.