tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → Santa Ana via Las Vegas: arrives on time 17%

  1. 16:00 PHX → 17:10 LAS
    WN 3283 · Southwest · 1h 10m · 41% on time, 2.0% cancelled
  2. 55m layover in Las Vegas (LAS) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:05 LAS → 19:10 SNA
    WN 2366 · Southwest · 1h 05m · 47% on time, 5.9% cancelled

Total trip 3h 10m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 32 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection39%The first flight arrived more than 10 minutes late on 61% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 55m layover.
Arrives on time17%First flight not cancelled (2.0% are) × connection made (39%) × second flight not cancelled (5.9% are) and within 15 minutes (47%).
Total trip3h 10mPHX 16:00 to SNA 19:10, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.