tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → Sacramento via Las Vegas: arrives on time 23%

  1. 16:00 PHX → 17:10 LAS
    WN 3283 · Southwest · 1h 10m · 41% on time, 2.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 20m layover in Las Vegas (LAS) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:30 LAS → 20:05 SMF
    WN 4032 · Southwest · 1h 35m · 36% on time, 2.9% cancelled

Total trip 4h 05m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 32 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection67%The first flight arrived more than 35 minutes late on 33% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 20m layover.
Arrives on time23%First flight not cancelled (2.0% are) × connection made (67%) × second flight not cancelled (2.9% are) and within 15 minutes (36%).
Total trip4h 05mPHX 16:00 to SMF 20:05, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.