tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → Oakland via Las Vegas: arrives on time 16%

  1. 16:00 PHX → 17:10 LAS
    WN 3283 · Southwest · 1h 10m · 41% on time, 2.0% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Las Vegas (LAS) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:00 LAS → 19:35 OAK
    WN 5050 · Southwest · 1h 35m · 54% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 3h 35m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 24 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection31%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 69% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time16%First flight not cancelled (2.0% are) × connection made (31%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (54%).
Total trip3h 35mPHX 16:00 to OAK 19:35, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.