tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → Minneapolis via Chicago: arrives on time 59%

  1. 06:25 PHX → 11:40 MDW
    WN 3295 · Southwest · 3h 15m · 90% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 3h 50m layover in Chicago (MDW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 15:30 MDW → 17:00 MSP
    WN 2832 · Southwest · 1h 30m · 60% on time, 1.9% cancelled

Total trip 8h 35m, scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 2 h ahead of Phoenix). Times are local. Both flew on 40 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection100%The first flight arrived more than 185 minutes late on 0% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 3h 50m layover.
Arrives on time59%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (100%) × second flight not cancelled (1.9% are) and within 15 minutes (60%).
Total trip8h 35mPHX 06:25 to MSP 17:00, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.