tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → Detroit via Chicago: arrives on time 50%

  1. 06:25 PHX → 11:40 MDW
    WN 3295 · Southwest · 3h 15m · 90% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 30m layover in Chicago (MDW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 13:10 MDW → 15:20 DTW
    WN 4450 · Southwest · 1h 10m · 52% on time, 2.9% cancelled

Total trip 5h 55m, scheduled departure to arrival (Detroit is 3 h ahead of Phoenix). Times are local. Both flew on 24 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection100%The first flight arrived more than 45 minutes late on 0% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 30m layover.
Arrives on time50%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (100%) × second flight not cancelled (2.9% are) and within 15 minutes (52%).
Total trip5h 55mPHX 06:25 to DTW 15:20, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.