tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → Orlando via Chicago: arrives on time 28%

  1. 07:30 PHX → 12:50 MDW
    WN 3296 · Southwest · 3h 20m · 77% on time, 2.0% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Chicago (MDW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 13:40 MDW → 17:30 MCO
    WN 2819 · Southwest · 2h 50m · 55% on time, 4.8% cancelled

Total trip 7h 00m, scheduled departure to arrival (Orlando is 3 h ahead of Phoenix). Times are local. Both flew on 40 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection54%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 46% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time28%First flight not cancelled (2.0% are) × connection made (54%) × second flight not cancelled (4.8% are) and within 15 minutes (55%).
Total trip7h 00mPHX 07:30 to MCO 17:30, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.