tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → Philadelphia via Chicago: arrives on time 30%

  1. 07:30 PHX → 12:50 MDW
    WN 3296 · Southwest · 3h 20m · 77% on time, 2.0% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Chicago (MDW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 13:40 MDW → 16:45 PHL
    WN 4351 · Southwest · 2h 00m · 57% on time, 1.8% cancelled

Total trip 6h 10m, scheduled departure to arrival (Philadelphia is 3 h ahead of Phoenix). Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection54%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 46% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time30%First flight not cancelled (2.0% are) × connection made (54%) × second flight not cancelled (1.8% are) and within 15 minutes (57%).
Total trip6h 10mPHX 07:30 to PHL 16:45, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.