tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → Baltimore via Chicago: arrives on time 18%

  1. 14:35 PHX → 19:55 MDW
    WN 3297 · Southwest · 3h 20m · 42% on time, 2.4% cancelled
  2. 55m layover in Chicago (MDW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:50 MDW → 23:45 BWI
    WN 2746 · Southwest · 1h 55m · 49% on time, 7.0% cancelled

Total trip 6h 10m, scheduled departure to arrival (Baltimore is 3 h ahead of Phoenix). Times are local. Both flew on 40 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection40%The first flight arrived more than 10 minutes late on 60% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 55m layover.
Arrives on time18%First flight not cancelled (2.4% are) × connection made (40%) × second flight not cancelled (7.0% are) and within 15 minutes (49%).
Total trip6h 10mPHX 14:35 to BWI 23:45, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.