tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Austin → San Diego via Las Vegas: arrives on time 10%

  1. 20:30 AUS → 21:15 LAS
    WN 330 · Southwest · 2h 45m · 36% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 00m layover in Las Vegas (LAS) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:15 LAS → 23:28 SAN
    WN 2871 · Southwest · 1h 12m · 29% on time, 7.7% cancelled

Total trip 4h 57m, scheduled departure to arrival (San Diego is 2 h behind Austin). Times are local. Both flew on 24 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection36%The first flight arrived more than 15 minutes late on 64% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 00m layover.
Arrives on time10%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (36%) × second flight not cancelled (7.7% are) and within 15 minutes (29%).
Total trip4h 57mAUS 20:30 to SAN 23:28, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.