tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Houston → Chicago via Phoenix: arrives on time 27%

  1. 14:25 HOU → 15:05 PHX
    WN 3304 · Southwest · 2h 40m · 55% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Phoenix (PHX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 15:55 PHX → 21:15 MDW
    WN 4085 · Southwest · 3h 20m · 62% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 6h 50m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 24 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection43%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 57% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time27%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (43%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (62%).
Total trip6h 50mHOU 14:25 to MDW 21:15, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.