tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Memphis → Denver via Chicago: arrives on time 32%

  1. 15:35 MEM → 17:10 MDW
    WN 3345 · Southwest · 1h 35m · 61% on time, 3.5% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Chicago (MDW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:00 MDW → 19:45 DEN
    WN 1497 · Southwest · 2h 45m · 68% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 5h 10m, scheduled departure to arrival (Denver is 1 h behind Memphis). Times are local. Both flew on 24 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection48%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 52% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time32%First flight not cancelled (3.5% are) × connection made (48%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (68%).
Total trip5h 10mMEM 15:35 to DEN 19:45, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.