tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Memphis → Phoenix via Chicago: arrives on time 30%

  1. 15:35 MEM → 17:10 MDW
    WN 3345 · Southwest · 1h 35m · 61% on time, 3.5% cancelled
  2. 1h 25m layover in Chicago (MDW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:35 MDW → 20:15 PHX
    WN 2862 · Southwest · 3h 40m · 43% on time, 6.0% cancelled

Total trip 6h 40m, scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 2 h behind Memphis). Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection76%The first flight arrived more than 40 minutes late on 24% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 25m layover.
Arrives on time30%First flight not cancelled (3.5% are) × connection made (76%) × second flight not cancelled (6.0% are) and within 15 minutes (43%).
Total trip6h 40mMEM 15:35 to PHX 20:15, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.