tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Austin → Raleigh/Durham via Baltimore: arrives on time 18%

  1. 17:15 AUS → 21:30 BWI
    WN 3385 · Southwest · 3h 15m · 33% on time, 5.3% cancelled
  2. 55m layover in Baltimore (BWI) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:25 BWI → 23:42 RDU
    WN 161 · Southwest · 1h 15m · 75% on time, 8.6% cancelled

Total trip 5h 25m, scheduled departure to arrival (Raleigh/Durham is 1 h ahead of Austin). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection27%The first flight arrived more than 10 minutes late on 73% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 55m layover.
Arrives on time18%First flight not cancelled (5.3% are) × connection made (27%) × second flight not cancelled (8.6% are) and within 15 minutes (75%).
Total trip5h 25mAUS 17:15 to RDU 23:42, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.