tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Austin → Hebron via Baltimore: arrives on time 40%

  1. 17:15 AUS → 21:30 BWI
    WN 3385 · Southwest · 3h 15m · 33% on time, 5.3% cancelled
  2. 1h 15m layover in Baltimore (BWI) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:45 BWI → 00:30 CVG +1 day
    WN 4435 · Southwest · 1h 40m · 77% on time, 8.8% cancelled

Total trip 6h 10m, scheduled departure to arrival (Hebron is 1 h ahead of Austin). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection60%The first flight arrived more than 30 minutes late on 40% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 15m layover.
Arrives on time40%First flight not cancelled (5.3% are) × connection made (60%) × second flight not cancelled (8.8% are) and within 15 minutes (77%).
Total trip6h 10mAUS 17:15 to CVG 00:30, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.