tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Providence → Minneapolis via Chicago: arrives on time 30%

  1. 19:00 PVD → 20:30 MDW
    WN 3410 · Southwest · 2h 30m · 57% on time, 2.4% cancelled
  2. 1h 00m layover in Chicago (MDW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:30 MDW → 23:00 MSP
    WN 4085 · Southwest · 1h 30m · 56% on time, 5.3% cancelled

Total trip 5h 00m, scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 1 h behind Providence). Times are local. Both flew on 39 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection57%The first flight arrived more than 15 minutes late on 43% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 00m layover.
Arrives on time30%First flight not cancelled (2.4% are) × connection made (57%) × second flight not cancelled (5.3% are) and within 15 minutes (56%).
Total trip5h 00mPVD 19:00 to MSP 23:00, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.